Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) has announced the launch of a total public exchange offer (OPS) on Mediobanca, valued at EUR 13.3 billion. It thus adds a further piece to the already compelling picture of the so-called ‘banking risk’ in Italy and, considering the UniCredit - Commerzbank affair, in Europe.
At stake is, again to use another expression dear to journalism, the banking ‘third pole’.
MPS is offering 2.3 newly issued shares for each Mediobanca share, with an implied price of EUR 15.992 per share. The offer includes a premium of 5.03% over Mediobanca's closing price on 23 January 2025. The transaction aims to generate annual synergies of approximately EUR 700 million.
The objectives of the transaction
In the communication released to the market and the press, MPS stated that the merger with Mediobanca will lead to the creation of a new national champion in the Italian banking sector.
The main objectives include:
- Industrial synergies: The transaction is expected to generate annual synergies of approximately €700 million, divided into €300 million from revenues, €300 million from costs and €100 million from funding.
- Utilisation of DTAs: The integration will enable MPS to accelerate the utilisation of deferred tax assets (DTAs) worth €2.9 billion over the next six years.
- Expansion of services: The merger aims to offer a broader and more integrated banking services platform for Italian households and businesses.
The other fronts: Generali, UniCredit, Banco BPM
The market is watching with great interest not only the OPS itself, but also its effect in the context of the overall change taking place in the Italian banking market.
It should be remembered that for months rumours about the fate of MPS have been leading it sometimes towards UniCredit, sometimes towards Banco BPM. It is precisely these two banks that are at the centre of a second Public Exchange Offer launched by UniCredit on BBPM. Which, in turn, is engaged in a transaction on Anima.
All this while, in recent days, the Generali - Natixis operation, which could lead to the creation of a European giant in asset management, got underway.
Mediobanca, which holds a 13% stake in Assicurazioni Generali, could see a change in its shareholding structure and operating strategy. Moreover, the deal could influence the power dynamics among the major players in the banking sector, including the Caltagirone and Delfin groups, which hold significant stakes in both banks.
